Halfway through the NFL season is a terrific time to take stock of the betting trends for all 32 teams. Sample sizes are large enough that teams are showing us their true colors, and their performance against where sportsbooks have set their lines is an exercise worth making every week prior to loading up a bet against the spread (ATS) or against the total.
Good teams win, great teams cover. That makes it all the more interesting to see which teams are representing the top of the board in the NFL against the spread trends. Every single team you see here above, besides Tampa Bay, would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.
The Lions were the second-best team ATS last year and have now covered the spread in 18 of their last 25 games.
There are not too many surprises here, besides perhaps the Buffalo Bills, though their 5-4 start might have already alerted to some to a less-than-stellar 2023 out of Buffalo.
The NFC South has three teams represented in the bottom portion of the league against the spread, backing up the belief from many that this division was set to be the worst in football this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) — The Vikings are 5-3-1 ATS while the Saints are 2-6-1, and we just watched as Joshua Dobbs had a backup QB performance for the ages. Despite all of that, Minnesota are 2.5-point home underdogs this weekend.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-16) — This is one of the largest spreads you're going to see in an NFL game, but it feels justified when you look at the ATS trends and remember Week 1, a game that Dallas won 40-0.
Only four teams in the NFL have gone over at a 60% clip or better, be wary of those overs when you load them up this weekend!
As one might presume, given the lack of teams hitting their overs at a frequent pace, unders are hitting at a historic rate. Over half the NFL has an under rate of 62.5% or greater, so we had to cut it down to just the 15 teams going under in 66.7% or more of their games.
The Giants are leading the way thanks to their hapless offense, while teams like Pittsburgh and New Orleans are here more for the combination of a struggling offense and strong defense.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (41 points) — Back to Minnesota here for another overlap of two teams hitting their unders at a 7-2 rate. Does the Dobbs factor have you throwing these trends out the window, or will you back under 41 in this one?
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (38 points) — This is the third-lowest total of the weekend. At first glance, we know both of these secondaries are weak and both QBs in Will Levis and Baker Mayfield can be fun. Our heart tells us to go over, but the numbers suggest the under.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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