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Pictured: Taylor Moore. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)

2024 PGA Championship Round 3 data-driven pick: Best bet for Saturday

Originally posted on Action Network | By Spencer Aguiar | Last updated 5/17/24

The PGA Tour officially entered a simulation after Scottie Scheffler got arrested on Friday before his second round.

We have talked a lot about Scheffler's ability to bounce back from golf mistakes during his recent stretch, but the fortitude he showed Friday to get back out on the course and keep his bearings together was truly one of the most staggering outcomes I have witnessed in any sport. Seriously, how many other athletes would perform at their top level expectation after rolling straight to Valhalla out of the Kentucky C-Block?

Unsurprisingly, Scheffler, who endured four days of baby anticipation during the Masters, knows how to handle pressure of the unknown. But the intrigue lies in the question: How does one halt a man who finds himself incarcerated Friday morning but still leaves the jail to shoot a five-under 66?

While Scottie Scheffler's arrest and potential victory may not be necessary to enhance his already impressive legacy, it's not an exaggeration to say that a win Sunday could be remembered as one of the greatest golf stories of all time in what has already been a whacky and chaotic week. As a sports enthusiast, I appreciate the significance of historical moments. This has the potential to grow in stature very quickly.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 PGA Championship Round 3 Predictions

Taylor Moore -105 over Lucas Herbert (Bet365)

We successfully found the regression we were looking for onFriday when we discussed Kurt Kitayama over Adam Hadwin. That was a wager that ended up being a little more stressful than it probably needed to be to officially get to the window, but we will look to attack the same viewpoint Saturday with Taylor Moore over Lucas Herbert.

This is one of those spots with Herbert where my model is taking a lot of that pre-tournament grade I had on him as a reason it wants to fade him in a matchup for round three. Sure, some struggling factors from a performance standpoint are also failing to see the upside after overachieving on the leaderboard by 50 spots on day one and 41 slots on day two. However, it is one of those situations where regression is likely due to hit, even if the data does show a fringe top-65 ball striker and performer over the opening two rounds.

My math respects Herbert's ability to drive the ball far and make putts, but his lackluster iron game does have the propensity to struggle as this course enters the weekend challenge. Herbert ranked 129th in my model pre-event for expected proximity at Valhalla, 102nd for weighted ball-striking and the overproduction in rough and bunker play does project to see a decrease if he finds trouble off-the-tee Saturday.

I wouldn't say this is a perfectly clean outlook for Moore, who carries a few red flags of his own, but this price feels like the epitome of an overcorrection to account for Herbert's fast start to the week.

I will be risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit on this wager.